Navigating the future: Strategies for the long-term governance of socio-technical change

Stefania Sardo; Sophie Kuppler; Dirk Scheer

doi:10.14512/tatup.7223

Authors

Stefania Sardo Institute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe (DE) https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2420-2737 stefania.sardo@kit.edu
Sophie Kuppler Institute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe (DE) https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4185-5286 sophie.kuppler@kit.edu
Dirk Scheer Institute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe (DE) https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7472-8331 dirk.scheer@kit.edu

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.14512/tatup.7223

Keywords:

long-term governance, transition, socio-technical problems, temporalities

Abstract

Long-term governance (LTG) addresses complex, enduring socio-technical challenges such as climate change and nuclear waste management. It requires framework conditions that go beyond short-term political cycles and promote a culture of foresight and collective stewardship. In an analytical framework developed for LTG, four key elements are identified: reflexivity, anticipation, adaptation, and deliberation. Contributions to this Special topic provide insights into LTG approaches in different contexts, highlighting participatory mechanisms for democratic accountability and ethical decision making. The articles explore the complexity of LTG and the tension between long-term objectives and immediate political pressures, thus contributing to the advancement of LTG theory and knowledge base.

References

Beck, Ulrich (1992): Risk society. Towards a new modernity. London: Sage.

Biermann, Frank (2007): Earth system governance’ as a crosscutting theme of global change research. In: Global Environmental Change 17 (3–4), pp. 326–337. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.11.010 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.11.010

Bornemann, Basil; Strassheim, Holger (2019): Governing time for sustainability. Analyzing the temporal implications of sustainability governance. In: Sustainability Science 14, pp. 1001–1013. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-019-00683-y DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-019-00683-y

Boston, Jonathan; Bagnall, David; Barry, Anna (2019): Foresight, insight and oversight. Enhancing long-term governance through better parliamentary scrutiny. Wellington: Institute for Governance and Policy Studies, Victoria University of Wellington.

Folke, Carl; Hahn, Thomas; Olsson, Per; Norberg, Jon (2005): Adaptive governance of social-ecological systems. In: Annual Review of Environment and Resources 30, pp. 441–473. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.energy.30.050504.144511 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.energy.30.050504.144511

Fuerth, Leon (2009): Foresight and anticipatory governance. In: Foresight 11 (4), pp. 14–32. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680910982412 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680910982412

Geels, Frank; Schot, Johan (2007): Typology of sociotechnical transition pathways. In: Research Policy 36 (3), pp. 399–417. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2007.01.003 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2007.01.003

Hansen, Holger; Alkoussa, Riham (2023): Germany’s coalition agrees changes to green heating law after dispute. In: Reuters, 13.06.2023. Available online at https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germanys-coalition-agrees-changes-green-heating-law-after-dispute-2023-06-13/, last accessed on 29.04.2025

Jacobs Alan (2016): Policy making for the long term in advanced democracies. In: Annual Review of Political Science 19, pp. 433–454. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-110813-034103 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-110813-034103

Kemp, René; Loorbach, Derk; Rotmans, Jan (2007): Transition management as a model for managing processes of co-evolution towards sustainable development. In: The International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology 14 (1), pp. 78–91. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504500709469709 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/13504500709469709

Kuhlmann, Stefan; Rip, Arie (2018): Next-Generation innovation policy and grand challenges. In: Science and Public Policy 45 (4), pp. 448–454. https://doi.org/10.1093/scipol/scy011 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/scipol/scy011

Meckling, Jonas; Lipscy, Phillip; Finnegan, Jared; Metz, Florence (2022): Why nations lead or lag in energy transitions. In: Science 378 (6615), pp. 31–33. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adc9973 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adc9973

Meuleman, Louis; in ’t Veld, Roeland (2010): Sustainable development and the governance of long-term decisions. In: Roeland in ’t Veld (ed.): Knowledge democracy. Consequences for science, politics, and media. Heidelberg: Springer, pp. 255–281. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-11381-9_18 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-11381-9_18

Pot, Wieke; Scherpenisse, Jorren; ’t Hart, Paul (2023): Robust governance for the long term and the heat of the moment. Temporal strategies for coping with dual crises. In: Public Administration 101 (1), pp. 221–235. https://doi.org/10.1111/padm.12872 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/padm.12872

Renn, Ortwin (2008): Risk governance. Coping with uncertainty in a complex world. London: Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781849772440 DOI: https://doi.org/10.4324/9781849772440

Scheer, Dirk et al. (2025): No easy way out. Towards a framework concept of long-term governance. In: Energy, Sustainability and Society 15, Article 9. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13705-025-00513-3 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s13705-025-00513-3

Siebenhüner, Bernd; Arnold, Marlen; Eisenack, Klaus; Jacob, Klaus (2013): Long-term governance for social-ecological change. London: Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203556160 DOI: https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203556160

Sovacool, Benjamin; Dworkin, Michael (2015): Energy justice. Conceptual insights and practical applications. In: Applied Energy 142, pp. 435–444. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.01.002 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.01.002

Sprinz, Detlef (2009): Long-term environmental policy. Definition, knowledge, future research. In: Global Environmental Politics 9 (3), pp. 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1162/glep.2009.9.3.1 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1162/glep.2009.9.3.1

Tremmel, Jörg (Ed.) (2006). Handbook of intergenerational justice. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781847201850 DOI: https://doi.org/10.4337/9781847201850

Turnheim, Bruno; Geels, Frank (2013): The destabilisation of existing regimes. Confronting a multi-dimensional framework with a case study of the British coal industry (1913–1967). In: Research Policy 42 (10), pp. 1749–1767. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2013.04.009 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2013.04.009

Voß, Jan-Peter; Kemp, René (2005): Reflexive governance for sustainable development. Incorporating feedback in social problem solving. Available online at https://kemp.unu-merit.nl/pdf/Voss-Kemp%20Reflexive%20Governance%20for%20ESEE%202005.pdf, last accessed 13.05.2025.