Artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and the new geopolitics of security: Why technology assessment must engage in emerging military technologies
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.14512/tatup.7248Keywords:
artificial intelligence, semiconductors, technology assessment, emerging technologiesAbstract
This conceptual research article examines the accelerating militarization of emerging technologies, particularly artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductors, and its implications for technology assessment (TA). It highlights how quickly commercial innovation, especially in the field of AI, is integrated into military applications, thereby eluding traditional assessment methods. Drawing on examples from Russia’s war against Ukraine and global semiconductor supply chains, the article argues for more agile, technically sound, and interdisciplinary TA approaches. It calls for assessment approaches that account for real-time deployment, dual-use dynamics, and geopolitical competition. Ultimately, it advocates further developing TA to remain relevant amid fast-moving security, technological, and strategic transformations.
References
Afina, Yasmin; Persi Paoli, Giacomo (2024): Governance of artificial intelligence in the military domain. A multi-stakeholder perspective on priority areas. Geneva: UNIDIR. Available online at https://unidir.org/publication/governance-of-artificial-intelligence-in-the-military-domain-a-multi-stakeholder-perspective-on-priority-areas/, last accessed on 24.11.2025.
Allen, Gregory (2025): DeepSeek, Huawei, export controls, and the future of the U.S.-China AI Race. Washington, DC: CSIS. Available online at https://www.csis.org/analysis/deepseek-huawei-export-controls-and-future-us-china-ai-race, last accessed on 24.11.2025.
Allen, Gregory; Goldston, Isaac (2025): Understanding U.S. allies’ current legal authority to implement AI and semiconductor export controls. Washington, DC: CSIS. Available online at https://www.csis.org/analysis/understanding-us-allies-current-legal-authority-implement-ai-and-semiconductor-export, last accessed on 24.11.2025.
Baptista, Eduardo (2025): Explainer. What is DeepSeek and why is it disrupting the AI sector? In: Reuters, 28.01.2025. Available online at https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/what-is-deepseek-why-is-it-disrupting-ai-sector-2025-01-27/, last accessed on 17.10.2025.
BMVg – Bundesministerium der Verteidigung (2023): Software defined defence. Positionspapier des BDSV, BDLI, Bitkom und BMVg. Berlin: Bundesministerium der Verteidigung. Available online at https://www.bmvg.de/resource/blob/5711942/6fb70a45412601fdf03f63aeebf72451/cyber-defined-defence-papier-data.pdf, last accessed on 24.11.2025.
Bondar, Kateryna (2025): Ukraine’s future vision and current capabilities for waging AI-enabled autonomous warfare. Washington, DC: CSIS. Available online at https://www.csis.org/analysis/ukraines-future-vision-and-current-capabilities-waging-ai-enabled-autonomous-warfare, last accessed on 24.11.2025.
Bovet, Peter (2025): Exploring decision advantages. Improving speed, precision and efficiency in military targeting by applying artificial intelligence. Stockholm: Swedish Defence University. https://doi.org/10.62061/leiy7136
Caswell, Amanda (2025): Why OpenAI wants 100 million GPUs – and how it could supercharge ChatGPT. In: Tom’s Guide, 22.07.2025. Available online at https://www.tomsguide.com/ai/sam-altmans-trillion-dollar-ai-vision-starts-with-100-million-gpus-heres-what-that-means-for-the-future-of-chatgpt-and-you, last accessed on 17.10.2025.
Chang, Wendy; Arcesati, Rebecca; Hmaidi, Antonia (2025): China’s drive toward self-reliance in artificial intelligence. Berlin: Mercator Institute for China Studies. Available online at https://merics.org/en/report/chinas-drive-toward-self-reliance-artificial-intelligence-chips-large-language-models, last accessed on 24.11.2025.
Collett-White, Mike; Dutta, Prasanta; Zafra, Mariano (2024): How Ukraine pulled off an audacious drone attack deep inside Russia. Months of planning went into a covert operation that relied on cheap, short-range drones. In: Reuters, 05.06.2025. Available online at https://www.reuters.com/graphics/UKRAINE-CRISIS/DRONES-RUSSIA/mypmjzayyvr/, last accessed on 17.10.2025.
Delovski, Boris (2024): A brief history of GPT models. Available online at https://www.edlitera.com/blog/posts/gpt-models-history, last accessed on 17.10.2025.
European Court of Auditors (2025): The EU’s strategy for microchips. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union. https://doi.org/10.2865/0902427
Frazier, Kevin (2025): What comes next in AI regulation? In: Lawfare, 28.07.2025. Available online at https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/what-comes-next-in-ai-regulation, last accessed on 17.10.2025.
Frazier, Kevin; Rozenshtein, Alan; Salib, Peter (2024): OpenAI’s latest model shows AGI is inevitable. Now what? In: Lawfare, 23.12.2024. Available online at https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/openai’s-latest-model-shows-agi-is-inevitable.-now-what, last accessed on 17.10.2025.
Garikapati, Divya; Shetiya, Sneha (2024): Autonomous vehicles. Evolution of artificial intelligence and learning algorithms. In: arXiv. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2402.17690
King, Anthony (2024): Digital targeting. Artificial intelligence, data, and military intelligence. In: Journal of Global Security Studies 9 (2), p. ogae009. https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogae009
Knuhtsen, Reyk; Patel, Dylan; Ciminelli, Niko; Ryu, Joe; Ghilduta, Robert; Ontiveros, Jeremie Eliahou (2025): Robotics Levels of Autonomy. SemiAnalysis, published on 30 July 2025. Available online at https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/robotics-levels-of-autonomy, last accessed on 04.02.2026
Loh, Matthew (2025): Western arms makers can now live-test their prototype weapons on the battlefield against Russia’s forces. In: Business Insider, 18.07.2025. Available online at https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-testing-western-weapon-prototypes-russian-forces-combat-2025-7, last accessed on 17.10.2025.
Maslej, Nestor (ed.) (2025): Artificial intelligence index report 2025. Stanford, CA: Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (HAI). Available online at https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2025-ai-index-report, last accessed on 24.11.2025.
Matlack, Jon-Wyatt; Schwartz, Sebastian; Gill, Oliver (2025): Ukraine’s drone ecosystem and the defence of Europe. Lessons lost can’t be learned. London: LSE IDEAS. Available online at https://www.lse.ac.uk/ideas/publications/Research-Reports/Ukraine’s-Drone-Ecosystem-and-the-Defence-of-Europe-Lessons-Lost-Can’t-be-Learned, last accessed on 24.01.2025.
Merle, Quentin (2024): Chips supply chain. Bifurcation and localization. In: CSS Analyses in Security Policy. https://doi.org/10.3929/ETHZ-B-000680146
Ministry of Defence of Ukraine (2025): Enemy equipment detected in 2 seconds. The ministry of defence showcased delta and Avengers systems at the London defence conference. Available online at https://mod.gov.ua/en/news/enemy-equipment-detected-in-2-seconds-the-ministry-of-defence-showcased-delta-and-avengers-systems-at-the-london-defence-conference, last accessed on 17.10.2025.
Mortimer, Ian; Page, Matthew (2025): How has DeepSeek affected the AI market for investors? In: Guinness Global Investors, 24.02.2025. Available online at https://www.guinnessgi.com/insights/how-has-deepseek-affected-ai-market-investors, last accessed on 17.10.2025.
Moss, Sebastian (2025): OpenAI says its compute increased 15x since 2024, company used 200k GPUs for GPT‑5. As company releases its latest generative AI model. In: Data Center Dynamics, 07.08.2025. Available online at https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/openai-says-its-compute-increased-15x-since-2024-company-used-200k-gpus-for-gpt-5/, last accessed on 17.10.2025.
Mozur, Paul; Satariano, Adam (2024): A.I. begins ushering in an age of killer robots. In: The New York Times, 02.07.2024. Available online at https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/02/technology/ukraine-war-ai-weapons.html, last accessed on 17.10.2025.
Nadibaidze, Anna; Bode, Ingvild; Zhang, Qiaochu (2024): AI in military decision support systems. A review of developments and debates. Odense: Center for War Studies. Available online at https://www.sdu.dk/en/forskning/forskningsenheder/samf/cws/cws-activities/2024/ai-gammel, last accessed on 24.11.2025.
O’Donnell, James (2024): We saw a demo of the new AI system powering Anduril’s vision for war. In: MIT Technology Review. Available online at https://www.technologyreview.com/2024/12/10/1108354/we-saw-a-demo-of-the-new-ai-system-powering-andurils-vision-for-war/, last accessed on 17.10.2025.
Reuters (2025): US defense department awards contracts to Google, Musk’s xAI. In: Reuters, 14.07.2025. Available online at https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-department-defense-awards-contracts-google-xai-2025-07-14/, last accessed on 17.10.2025.
Rotolo, Daniele; Hicks, Diana; Martin, Ben (2015): What is an emerging technology? In: Research Policy 44 (10), S. 1827–1843. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2015.06.006
Rubstov, Alexey (2025): AI supply chain shocks. Insights from DeepSeek R1. Toronto: Global Risk Institute. Available online at https://globalriskinstitute.org/publication/ai-supply-chain-shocks-insights-from-deepseek-r1/, last accessed on 24.11.2025.
Rudra, Sourav (2025): This open source software was used in Ukraine’s drone attack on Russia. Is this a turning point for open source software in warfare? In: Its FOSS, 04.06.2025. Available online at https://news.itsfoss.com/open-source-drone-attack/, last accessed on 17.10.2025.
Sauer, Frank (2020): Stepping back from the brink. Why multilateral regulation of autonomy in weapons systems is difficult, yet imperative and feasible. In: International Review of the Red Cross 102 (913), pp. 235–259. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1816383120000466
Schörnig, Niklas; Suckau, Liska; Korkusuz, Abdullah; Reinhold, Thomas (2024): Emerging disruptive technologies. Neue Militärtechnologien in nationalen Sicherheitsstrategien – eine vergleichende Analyse. In: CNTR Monitor. 2024. Perspektiven auf Dual Use. Frankfurt a. M.: Peace Research Institute, pp. 58–77. https://doi.org/10.48809/cntr2024
Slusher, Matthew (2025): Lessons from the Ukraine conflict. Modern warfare in the age of autonomy, information, and resilience. Washington, DC: CSIS. Available online at https://www.csis.org/analysis/lessons-ukraine-conflict-modern-warfare-age-autonomy-information-and-resilience, last accessed on 24.11.2025.
Sprenger, Sebastian (2025): Saab, Helsing let Gripen fighter fly with AI in charge. In: Defense News, 11.06.2025. Available online at https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2025/06/11/saab-helsing-let-gripen-fighter-fly-with-ai-in-charge/, last accessed on 17.10.2025.
Stepanenko, Kateryna (2025): The battlefield AI revolution is not here yet. The status of current Russian and Ukrainian AI drone efforts. Washington, DC: Institute for the Study of War. Available online at https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/the-battlefield-ai-revolution-is-not-here-yet-the-status-of-current-russian-and-ukrainian-ai-drone-efforts/, last accessed on 24.11.2025.
Suckau, Liska (2024): The limits of autonomy. Critically assessing factors limiting full autonomy of military uncrewed ground vehicles. Frankfurt a. M.: Peace Research Institute Frankfurt. https://doi.org/10.48809/prifspot2406
Sullivan, Helen (2025): A journey through the hyper-political world of microchips. In: The Guardian, 28.02.2025. Available online at https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/feb/28/inside-the-mind-bending-tin-blasting-and-hyper-political-world-of-microchips, last accessed on 10.11.2025.
Teer, Joris; Seaman, John; Caruso, Alessia (2024): EUISS intra-EU workshop outcomes. Starting with the end in mind. De-risked gallium, germanium, and rare earth value chains by 2030. Paris, France, 09.12.2024. Available online at https://www.iss.europa.eu/sites/default/files/2025-03/EUISS%20workshop%20outcomes%3B%20De-risked%20Ga%20Ge%20and%20REE%20value%20chains%20-%20FINAL.pdf, last accessed on 24.11.2025.
Watts, Tom; Bode, Ingvild (2023): Loitering munitions and unpredictability. Autonomy in weapon systems and challenges to human control. Odense: Center for War Studies. Available online at https://www.sdu.dk/en/forskning/forskningsenheder/samf/cws/cws-activities/2023/loitering-munitions-unpredictability, last accessed on 24.11.2025.
Wu, Emily (2024): ‘Silicon Shield’. Looking beyond semiconductors. Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace. Available online at https://www.usip.org/publications/2024/01/silicon-shield-looking-beyond-semiconductors, last accessed on 24.11.2025.
Zeff, Maxwell (2025): The Pentagon says AI is speeding up its ‘kill chain’. In: TechCrunch 09.01.2025. Available online at https://techcrunch.com/2025/01/19/the-pentagon-says-ai-is-speeding-up-its-kill-chain/, last accessed on 17.10.2025.
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Thomas Reinhold

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

