Military technology assessment and preventive arms control: Fundamental issues, natural-science peace research, and present challenges

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.14512/tatup.7257

Keywords:

military technology assessment, preventive arms control, peace research, emerging technologies

Abstract

Military technologies have so far been largely neglected in technology assessment (TA), even though they can have devastating consequences and their very purpose is to cause damage, injury, and death. While an individual state can establish and enforce rules for civilian technologies, in the anarchic international system there is no higher authority that can regulate military technologies – restrictions and prohibitions can only come about through voluntary agreements between states. Military TA starts with a natural-science/technical analysis, evaluates the results against a set of criteria, and then develops options for preventive restrictions. The article outlines examples from such past and current work, showing that emerging military technologies pose particular challenges for TA.

References

Altmann, Jürgen (ed.) (2000): Dual-use in der Hochtechnologie. Erfahrungen, Strategien und Perspektiven in Telekommunikation und Luftfahrt. Baden-Baden: Nomos.

Altmann, Jürgen (2008): Präventive Rüstungskontrolle. In: Die Friedens-Warte 83 (2–3), pp. 105–126.

Altmann, Jürgen (2020): Technology, arms control and world order. Fundamental change needed. Available online at https://toda.org/assets/files/resources/policy-briefs/t-pb-89_jurgen-altmann.pdf, last accessed on 21.11.2025.

Altmann, Jürgen; Sauer, Frank (2017): Autonomous weapon systems and strategic stability. In: Survival 59 (5), pp. 117–142. https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2017.1375263

Altmann, Jürgen et al. (2001): Präventive Rüstungskontrolle. Erste Ergebnisse des Projektes „Präventive Rüstungskontrolle“ des Forschungsverbundes Naturwissenschaft, Abrüstung und Internationale Sicherheit (FONAS). In: W&F 2001 (3). Available online at https://wissenschaft-und-frieden.de/dossier/praeventive-ruestungskontrolle/, last accessed on 21.11.2025.

Barton, David et al. (2004): Report to the American Physical Society of the study group on boost-phase intercept systems for national missile defense. Scientific and technical issues. In: Reviews of Modern Physics 76 (3), pp. 1–424. https://doi.org/10.1103/RevModPhys.76.S1

Bhuta, Nehal; Beck, Susanne; Geiß, Robin; Liu, Hin-Yan; Kreß, Claus (eds.) (2016): Autonomous weapon systems. Law, ethics, policy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Bielefeld, Tom; Eurich, Christian (2005): Science Roadmapping für Rüstungstechnologie-Folgenabschätzung und präventive Rüstungskontrolle. In: TATuP – Journal for Technology Assessment in Theory and Practice 14 (3), pp. 128–134. https://doi.org/10.14512/tatup.14.3.128

Bloembergen, Nicholas et al. (1987): Report to the American Physical Society of the study group on science and technology of directed energy weapons. In: Reviews of Modern Physics 59 (3), pp. 1–201. https://doi.org/10.1103/RevModPhys.59.S1

Brockmann, Kolja; Kelley, Robert (2018): The challenge of emerging technologies to non-proliferation efforts. Controlling additive manufacturing and intangible transfers of technology. Stockholm: SIPRI. Available online at https://www.sipri.org/publications/2018/policy-reports/challenge-emerging-technologies-non-proliferation-efforts-controlling-additive-manufacturing-and, last accessed on 19.01.2026.

Bull, Hedley (1961/1965): The control of the arms race. Disarmament and arms in the missile age. New York, NY: Praeger.

Chernavskikh, Vladislav; Palayer, Jules (2025): Impact of military artificial intelligence on nuclear escalation risk. Stockholm: SIPRI. https://doi.org/10.55163/FZIW8544

Fetter, Steve; Wright, David (2025): Can the iron dome be transmuted into a golden dome? In: The Washington Quarterly 48 (2), pp. 95–114. https://doi.org/10.1080/0163660X.2025.2514916

Foradori, Paolo; Giacomello, Giampiero; Pascolini, Alessandro (eds.) (2018): Arms control and disarmament. 50 years of experience in nuclear education. Cham: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-62259-0

Garwin, Richard; Bethe, Hans (1968): Anti-ballistic-missile systems. In: Scientific American 218 (3), pp. 21–31. https://doi.org/10.1038/scientificamerican0368-21

Geser, Hans (2011): Waffensysteme als „derivierte Akteure“. Kampfroboter im asymmetrischen Krieg. In: TATuP – Journal for Technology Assessment in Theory and Practice 20 (1), pp. 52–59. https://doi.org/10.14512/tatup.20.1.52

Grünwald, Reinhard; Kehl, Christoph (2020): Autonome Waffensysteme. Endbericht zum TA-Projekt. Arbeitsbericht Nr. 187. Berlin: Büro für Technikfolgen-Abschätzung beim Deutschen Bundestag (TAB). https://doi.org/10.5445/IR/1000127160

Hansel, Mischa; Mutschler, Max; Dickow, Marcel (2018): Taming cyber warfare. Lessons from preventive arms control. In: Journal of Cyber Policy 3 (1), pp. 44–60. https://doi.org/10.1080/23738871.2018.1462394

Hennen, Leonhard; Hahn, Julia; Ladikas, Miltos; Lindner, Ralf; Peissl, Walter; van Est, Rinie (eds.) (2023): Technology assessment in a globalized world. Facing the challenges of transnational technology governance. Cham: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-10617-0

Herz, John (1950): Idealist internationalism and the security dilemma. In: World Politics 2 (2), pp. 157–180, 195. https://doi.org/10.2307/2009187

Koch, Bernhard; Rinke, Bernhard (2011): Der militärische Einsatz bewaffneter Drohnen. Zwischen Schutz für Soldaten und gezieltem Töten. In: TATuP – Journal for Technology Assessment in Theory and Practice 27 (3), pp. 38–44. https://doi.org/10.14512/tatup.27.3.38

Krelina, Michal; Altmann, Jürgen (2022): Quantum technologies. A new field that needs assessment. In: Die Friedens-Warte – Journal of International Peace and Organization 95 (3–4), pp. 267–289. https://doi.org/10.35998/fw-2022-0012

Kronfeld, Ulrike; Baus, Wolfgang; Ebbesen, Björn; Jathe, Markus (eds.) (1993): Naturwissenschaft und Abrüstung. Forschungsprojekte an deutschen Hochschulen. Münster: Lit.

Lamb, Frederick et al. (2025): Strategic ballistic missile defense. Challenges to defending the United States. College Park, MD: American Physical Society. Available online at https://res.cloudinary.com/apsphysics/image/upload/v1741185158/APS_BMD_Report_2025_qzgzaz.pdf, last accessed on 21.11.2025.

Matthews, Michael; Schnyer, David (eds.) (2019): Human performance optimization. The science and ethics of enhancing human capabilities. Oxford: Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190455132.001.0001

Nass, Elmar (2022): Human dignity and lethal autonomous weapon systems. A Christian ethical positioning from a catholic point of view. In: TATuP – Journal for Technology Assessment in Theory and Practice 31 (3), pp. 58–64. https://doi.org/10.14512/tatup.31.3.58

OTA – U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment (1985): Ballistic missile defense technologies. OTA-ISC-254. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office.

OTA (1988): SDI. Technology, survivability, and software. OTA-ISC-353. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.

Paschen, Herbert; Gresser, Klaus; Conrad, Felix (1978): Technology assessment – Technologiefolgenabschätzung. Ziele, methodische und organisatorische Probleme, Anwendungen. Frankfurt a. M.: Campus.

Patrick, Stewart; Barton, Josie (2024): Mitigating risks from gene editing and synthetic biology. Global governance priorities. Carnegie endowment for international peace. Available online at https://carnegie-production-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/static/files/Patrick_Barton-Biotech%20Governance-final.pdf, last accessed 21.11.2025

Petermann, Thomas; Socher, Martin; Wennrich, Christine (1996): Kontrollkriterien für die Bewertung und Entscheidung bezüglich neuer Technologien im Rüstungsbereich. Arbeitsbericht Nr. 45. Berlin: Büro für Technikfolgen-Abschätzung beim Deutschen Bundestag (TAB). https://doi.org/10.5445/IR/1000103310

Petermann, Thomas; Coenen, Christopher; Grünwald, Reinhard (2003): Militärische Nutzung des Weltraums und Möglichkeiten der Rüstungskontrolle im Weltraum. Sachstandbericht. Berlin: Büro für Technikfolgen-Abschätzung beim Deutschen Bundestag (TAB). https://doi.org/10.5445/IR/1000103294

Petermann, Thomas; Grünwald, Reinhard (2011): Stand und Perspektiven der militärischen Nutzung unbemannter Systeme. Endbericht zum TA-Projekt. Berlin: Büro für Technikfolgen-Abschätzung beim Deutschen Bundestag (TAB). https://doi.org/10.5445/IR/310084510

Porter, Alan; Rossini, Frederick; Carpenter, Stanley; Roper, Thomas; Larson, Rolan; Tiller, Jeffrey (1980): A guidebook for technology assessment and impact analysis. New York, NY: North Holland.

RAND Corporation (2025): Our history. Available online at https://www.rand.org/about/history.html, last accessed on 21.11.2025.

Reagan, Ronald (1983): Strategic defense initiative. President’s backup copy. Address on defense, March 23, 1983. Available online at https://www.reaganlibrary.gov/public/2020-06/sdi-speech.pdf, last accessed on 21.11.2025.

Reuter, Christian; Scheffran, Jürgen; Kreutle, Manuel (2026): Naturwissenschaftlich-technische Friedens- und Konfliktforschung. In: Bettina Engels, Hans-Joachim Giessmann, and Bernhard Rinke (eds.): Handbuch Frieden. Wiesbaden: Springer VS.

TAB – Büro für Technikfolgen-Abschätzung beim Deutschen Bundestag (2025a): TAB-Berichte. Available online at https://www.tab-beim-bundestag.de/publikationen.php?tab=%5B962%5D#tabpanel-962, last accessed on 25.11.2025.

TAB (2025b): Militärische Nutzung von Quantentechnologien. Available online at https://www.tab-beim-bundestag.de/themenfeld-infrastrukturen-und-sicherheit_militarische-nutzung-von-quantentechnologien.php, last accessed on 25.11.2025.

TATuP – Journal for Technology Assessment in Theory and Practice (2025): Archives. Available online at https://www.tatup.de/index.php/tatup/issue/archive, last accessed on 10.07.2025.

Trump, Donald (2025): The iron dome for America. In: The White House, 27.01.2025. Available online at https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/the-iron-dome-for-america/, last accessed on 25.11.2025.

Tzoufis, Vasilios; Petropoulos, Nikolaos (2024): The commission of crimes using autonomous weapon systems. Issues of causation and attribution. In: TATuP – Journal for Technology Assessment in Theory and Practice 33 (2), pp. 35–41. https://doi.org/10.14512/tatup.33.2.35

York, Herbert (1970): ABM, MIRV, and the arms race. ABM and MIRV require and inspire each other; together they will lessen our national security. In: Science 169 (3942), pp. 257–260. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.169.3942.257

Published

2026-03-23

How to Cite

“Military Technology Assessment and Preventive Arms Control: Fundamental Issues, Natural-Science Peace Research, and Present Challenges”. 2026. TATuP - Zeitschrift für Technikfolgenabschätzung in Theorie Und Praxis 35 (1): 22–27. https://doi.org/10.14512/tatup.7257.