How to deal with non-linear pathways towards energy futures: Concept and application of the cross-impact balance analysis

Stefan Vögele; Witold-Roger Poganietz; Philip Mayer

doi:10.14512/tatup.28.3.20

Authors

Stefan Vögele Institute of Energy and Climate Research – Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (IEK-STE), Forschungszentrum Jülich (Deutschland) s.voegele@fz-juelich.de
Witold-Roger Poganietz Institut für Technikfolgenabschätzung und Systemanalyse (ITAS), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT) (Deutschland) witold-roger.poganietz@kit.edu
Philip Mayer Chair of Economics, TU Bergakademie Freiberg (Deutschland) Philip.mayer@vwl.tu-freiberg.de

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.14512/tatup.28.3.20

Keywords:

energy scenarios, dynamics, cross-impact balance analysis

Abstract

Energy scenarios currently in use for policy advice are based on a number of simplifying assumptions. This includes, in particular, the linear extrapolation of trends. However, this approach ignores the fact that central variables were highly dynamic in the past. For an assessment of energy futures and the specification of measures, novel approaches are necessary which can implement non-linear trends. In this paper, we show how cross-impact balance (CIB) analysis can be applied to map dynamic trends. Using a small CIB model, we highlight the need for novel approaches in the creation and evaluation of energy futures and the possible contribution of CIB analysis.

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